When the vaccines came out, I was first in line, being 77 years old. My experience was good. I got the vaccine just before the delta variant became widespread.
But here’s the thing that will haunt public health for years. I read, over and over, in many places, that the goal was herd immunity. And extinction of the virus. That was the justification for vaccination mandates. Now we find out that that goal was impossible, and epidemiologists knew this all along. Or should have.
This is going to cause problems if mandates are ever again attempted.
complete manuscript: available at the link above...article is now 'peer reviewed'
ALL quotes below from the discussion section:
"The strengths of our study include its large sample size, and its conduct in a healthcare system
where a very early recognition of the critical importance of maintaining an effective workforce
during the pandemic led to devotion of resources to have an accurate accounting of who had
COVID-19, when COVID-19 was diagnosed, who received a COVID-19 vaccine, and when. The
study methodology, treating bivalent vaccination as a time-dependent covariate, allowed for
determining vaccine effectiveness in real time."
"our study was done in a healthcare population, and included no children and few elderly subjects, and the majority of study subjects would not have been immunocompromised."
"The association of increased risk of COVID-19 with higher numbers of prior vaccine doses was
unexpected. A simplistic explanation might be that those who received more doses were more
likely to be individuals at higher risk of COVID-19. A small proportion of individuals may have
fit this description. However, the majority of subjects in this study were generally young
individuals and all were eligible to have received at least 3 doses of vaccine by the study start date,
and which they had every opportunity to do. Therefore, those who received fewer than 3 doses
(46% of individuals in the study) were not those ineligible to receive the vaccine, but those who
chose not to follow the CDC’s recommendations on remaining updated with COVID-19
vaccination, and one could reasonably expect these individuals to have been more likely to have
exhibited higher risk-taking behavior. Despite this, their risk of acquiring COVID-19 was lower
than those who received a larger number of prior vaccine doses. This is not the only study to find
a possible association with more prior vaccine doses and higher risk of COVID-19."
With a little research I knew this before the covid vaccines came out. Why didn't the public health experts know this? I also knew my immune system placed me in a favorable group for getting a mild infection. (the average age if death in early Italy studies was 82 - and a smoker)
Can we eliminate COVID? This article doesn't answer the question. It only addresses one of the ten tools we have in the Swiss cheese model applied to COVID-19. In order to answer the question we would have to look at all ten tools being used in combination.
Dr Offit, what are your thoughts on the findings of IgG4 class switch with repeat mRNA vaccinations, and the implications this has for immune suppression - promoting cancer growth and autoimmune myocarditis in particular?
I notice that these findings have now been replicated in numerous peer reviewed studies.
The symptoms associated with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza infection are in the upper respiratory tract, where IgA antibodies dominate, whilst the vaccine generates an IgG antibody response which predominates in the lower respiratory tract. Thus a short incubation period pathogen that enters via the upper respiratory tract must always produce symptoms as the vaccine induced immune response requires infection in the lower respiratory tract. Or am I mistaken?
Does infection in the upper respiratory tract trigger an IgA immune response with associated memory cells?
Measles infection is a persistent infection, I still have active antibodies 50 years after the disease.
I’m a little confused about measles and rubella, again the immune response to the vaccine is in the bloodstream and associated areas whereas the primary site of infection is the URT. Even allowing for the long incubation period surely there can still be URT symptoms. I know that children are infectious two or three days prior to the measles rash developing, although they feel and look unwell which I presume is indicative of an inflammatory response. Does this apply to children who are vaccinated and are exposed to the virus?
It doesn't look measles will ever be eradicated by vaccines https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8053748/ and worse, the incomplete, TEMPORARY, humoral response only 'immunity' the vaccines give is compromising herd immunity.
Be a responsible scientist for once and stop regurgitating TV biology.
If you factor in possible iatrogenesis in people who have bad long term outcomes from vaccinations, they only sane policy must be to make them OPTIONAL and NEVER MANDATED.
Having a diverse, multi- rather than monoculture of both vaxed and unvaxxed is also great for both control studies and herd protection.
Calls to jab every last person are neither scientifically nor ethically justified. This is simply a remnant of mid-20th century medical paternalism which has more into something far worse in the 21st: medical fascism in service of corporate agendas.
I’m reading that China is experiencing a massive wave of Covid infections after dropping their zero covid policies. It would be interesting to have a model that shows the difference between “getting it over with” vs stretching it out over years. It should incorporate the cost of the lockdown policies. I have no opinion as to what would be shown, but it seems that just about everyone has had it. And it continues. I just had a long planned dinner party cancelled due to covid.
Wouldn't it be more accurate to talk about the latent period (the period from the time of infection to the time of becoming infectious) instead of the incubation period (the period between exposure to an infection and the appearance of the first symptoms)?
You mention diseases we could eliminate by vaccination, however, I think this would mean that most of the population would have to be vaccinated to become immune.
Based on what we have learned from COVID, when the next novel virus emerges will we be equipped to recognize and limit the spread before it becomes a pandemic?
When the vaccines came out, I was first in line, being 77 years old. My experience was good. I got the vaccine just before the delta variant became widespread.
But here’s the thing that will haunt public health for years. I read, over and over, in many places, that the goal was herd immunity. And extinction of the virus. That was the justification for vaccination mandates. Now we find out that that goal was impossible, and epidemiologists knew this all along. Or should have.
This is going to cause problems if mandates are ever again attempted.
any comments about the cleveland clinic study? more covid jabs more covid infections...
https://academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ofid/ofad209/7131292?login=false
complete manuscript: available at the link above...article is now 'peer reviewed'
ALL quotes below from the discussion section:
"The strengths of our study include its large sample size, and its conduct in a healthcare system
where a very early recognition of the critical importance of maintaining an effective workforce
during the pandemic led to devotion of resources to have an accurate accounting of who had
COVID-19, when COVID-19 was diagnosed, who received a COVID-19 vaccine, and when. The
study methodology, treating bivalent vaccination as a time-dependent covariate, allowed for
determining vaccine effectiveness in real time."
"our study was done in a healthcare population, and included no children and few elderly subjects, and the majority of study subjects would not have been immunocompromised."
"The association of increased risk of COVID-19 with higher numbers of prior vaccine doses was
unexpected. A simplistic explanation might be that those who received more doses were more
likely to be individuals at higher risk of COVID-19. A small proportion of individuals may have
fit this description. However, the majority of subjects in this study were generally young
individuals and all were eligible to have received at least 3 doses of vaccine by the study start date,
and which they had every opportunity to do. Therefore, those who received fewer than 3 doses
(46% of individuals in the study) were not those ineligible to receive the vaccine, but those who
chose not to follow the CDC’s recommendations on remaining updated with COVID-19
vaccination, and one could reasonably expect these individuals to have been more likely to have
exhibited higher risk-taking behavior. Despite this, their risk of acquiring COVID-19 was lower
than those who received a larger number of prior vaccine doses. This is not the only study to find
a possible association with more prior vaccine doses and higher risk of COVID-19."
With a little research I knew this before the covid vaccines came out. Why didn't the public health experts know this? I also knew my immune system placed me in a favorable group for getting a mild infection. (the average age if death in early Italy studies was 82 - and a smoker)
We should have had you instead of Fauci at CDC in 2020-2022, Dr. O.! Hope you are well...
Can we eliminate COVID? This article doesn't answer the question. It only addresses one of the ten tools we have in the Swiss cheese model applied to COVID-19. In order to answer the question we would have to look at all ten tools being used in combination.
Dr Offit, what are your thoughts on the findings of IgG4 class switch with repeat mRNA vaccinations, and the implications this has for immune suppression - promoting cancer growth and autoimmune myocarditis in particular?
I notice that these findings have now been replicated in numerous peer reviewed studies.
https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/11/5/991#
The symptoms associated with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza infection are in the upper respiratory tract, where IgA antibodies dominate, whilst the vaccine generates an IgG antibody response which predominates in the lower respiratory tract. Thus a short incubation period pathogen that enters via the upper respiratory tract must always produce symptoms as the vaccine induced immune response requires infection in the lower respiratory tract. Or am I mistaken?
Does infection in the upper respiratory tract trigger an IgA immune response with associated memory cells?
Measles infection is a persistent infection, I still have active antibodies 50 years after the disease.
I’m a little confused about measles and rubella, again the immune response to the vaccine is in the bloodstream and associated areas whereas the primary site of infection is the URT. Even allowing for the long incubation period surely there can still be URT symptoms. I know that children are infectious two or three days prior to the measles rash developing, although they feel and look unwell which I presume is indicative of an inflammatory response. Does this apply to children who are vaccinated and are exposed to the virus?
Another reason for elimiantion being highly unlikely is the virus having been found in non-human reservoirs, namely farm and wild mammals.
check: https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2023.7822
It doesn't look measles will ever be eradicated by vaccines https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8053748/ and worse, the incomplete, TEMPORARY, humoral response only 'immunity' the vaccines give is compromising herd immunity.
Be a responsible scientist for once and stop regurgitating TV biology.
If you factor in possible iatrogenesis in people who have bad long term outcomes from vaccinations, they only sane policy must be to make them OPTIONAL and NEVER MANDATED.
Having a diverse, multi- rather than monoculture of both vaxed and unvaxxed is also great for both control studies and herd protection.
Calls to jab every last person are neither scientifically nor ethically justified. This is simply a remnant of mid-20th century medical paternalism which has more into something far worse in the 21st: medical fascism in service of corporate agendas.
I’m reading that China is experiencing a massive wave of Covid infections after dropping their zero covid policies. It would be interesting to have a model that shows the difference between “getting it over with” vs stretching it out over years. It should incorporate the cost of the lockdown policies. I have no opinion as to what would be shown, but it seems that just about everyone has had it. And it continues. I just had a long planned dinner party cancelled due to covid.
excellent discussion of the efficacy of Ab for prevention viral infections
Paul,
I know it is in you, come on. Just say it - https://outsidein51.substack.com/p/pro-vaccine-safety-in-2023-where
Medical Calculus is real.
Wouldn't it be more accurate to talk about the latent period (the period from the time of infection to the time of becoming infectious) instead of the incubation period (the period between exposure to an infection and the appearance of the first symptoms)?
So complicated, yet considering incubation period as the prime driver of eradication dynamics is elegantly simple. Thanks.
You mention diseases we could eliminate by vaccination, however, I think this would mean that most of the population would have to be vaccinated to become immune.
Based on what we have learned from COVID, when the next novel virus emerges will we be equipped to recognize and limit the spread before it becomes a pandemic?