RFK Jr.’s “Scienze”

RFK Jr. often offers scientific explanations for his policy decisions. Because these explanations aren’t supported by scientific studies, they should be labelled “scienze,” with a “z”.

On August 5^th, 2025, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), issued a press release justifying the elimination of $500 million in federal funding for mRNA vaccine projects funded by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA). In May, HHS he also cancelled $766 million in funding to Moderna for development of mRNA vaccines against bird flu. These cuts leave Americans uniquely vulnerable to the next pandemic. RFK Jr. offered several reasons for the cuts, all in scientific terms and none supported by scientific studies.

“Scienze” Explanation #1: RFK Jr. said, “BARDA is terminating 22 mRNA vaccine development investments because the data show these vaccines fail to protect effectively against upper respiratory infections like COVID.” The goal of COVID vaccines is to prevent serious infections: to keep people out of the hospital, out of the intensive care unit, and out of the morgue—not to prevent mild or moderate illness. A study by Yale School of Public Health estimated that the mRNA COVID vaccines prevented more than 3 million deaths. In addition, a CDC study published in 2022 found that the mRNA COVID vaccines caused a 90 percent reduction in intensive care unit admissions requiring mechanical ventilation. In other words, mRNA COVID vaccines have been remarkably effective at saving our lives.

“Scienze” Explanation #2: RFK Jr. said that HHS would be “shifting funding toward safer, broader vaccine platforms that remain effective even as viruses mutate.” All viruses mutate. Some more effectively than others. Influenza virus, for example, mutates from one year to the next so that natural infection or vaccination one year doesn’t afford protection the following year. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the cause of AIDS, mutates during a single infection, which is why it’s been so hard to make an HIV vaccine. Measles virus—whose genome is like SARS-CoV-2—also mutates but has never mutated away from recognition by vaccine-induced immunity. And the measles vaccine has been around since the early 1960s. Although SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to mutate, people remain protected against serious illness in large part because the sites on the virus recognized by T cells (which can kill virus-infected cells) have remained conserved across different variants.

“Scienze” Explanation #3: RFK Jr. said that the “mRNA vaccine paradoxically encourages new mutations and can actually prolong pandemics.” The SARS-CoV-2 virus strain that first appeared in late 2019 in Wuhan, China was called the Wuhan-1 or ancestral strain. That’s not the strain that left China. The strain that left China was the first variant; called the D614G strain, it was far more contagious, sweeping through Asia and Europe. The D614G variant was replaced by the alpha variant which was replaced by the delta variant. All these changes occurred before the mRNA COVID vaccines were available. Also, we have remained in the omicron variant era since November 2021.

“Scienze” Explanation #4: RFK Jr. said on an X video that, “HHS has determined that mRNA technology poses more risks than benefits for these respiratory viruses.” While the mRNA COVID vaccines were a rare cause of myocarditis (i.e., inflammation of the heart muscle) primarily in boys and young men, the symptoms were mild, transient, and self-limited. (Myocarditis can also occur rarely after the protein-based Novavax vaccine.) Of interest, vaccine safety monitoring has shown no association between COVID-19 vaccination and myocarditis in the past three years. Finally, between September 2024 and January 2025, mRNA COVID vaccines remain highly effective at preventing severe COVID. The benefits of COVID vaccination clearly and dramatically outweigh its vanishingly small risks.

“Scienze” Explanation #5: RFK Jr. said that “HHS would invest in whole-virus vaccines and novel platforms that don’t collapse when viruses mutate.” Whole viral vaccines have been around since the rabies vaccine in the late 1800s. They’re not exactly a novel vaccine technology. More importantly, the whole killed virus vaccines that were used to prevent COVID in China beginning in late 2020 were less effective than the mRNA vaccines. Again, RFK Jr. is wrong about the science.

“Scienze” Explanation #6: RFK Jr. said that the mRNA COVID vaccines can become ineffective due to “antigenic shift, potentially prolonging pandemics.” The term “antigenic shift” is typically reserved for influenza virus, which has a segmented genome that allows for entire gene segments to be transferred from one strain to another. SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t have a segmented genome. When antigenic shifts occurred in 1957 (“Asian flu”), 1968 (“Hong Kong flu”) and 2009 (“Swine flu”), influenza pandemics ensued. If SARS-CoV-2 underwent an “antigenic shift”, the entire world would once again be completely susceptible to this virus, and we would be right back to where we were in late 2019. Sounds scary. Complete nonsense.

Jonathan Swift, the 18^th century satirist who wrote Gulliver’s Travels, said, “Falsehood flies, and truth comes limping after it, so that when men come to be undeceived, it is too late; the jest is over, and the tale hath had its effect.” RFK Jr. counts on this. He counts on the fact that by the time scientists have unraveled his firehose of false information—his “scienze”—the harm will have been done. He counts on the fact that people will think that because he sounds like he knows what he is talking about, that he actually does.

One fact is unavoidable: three pandemic viruses have swept across the world in the last 20 years. The next one isn’t far away. With RFK Jr.’s “scienze” offered as explanations for why we are cutting resources, we will be far less prepared for the next one. And because we have consistently failed to limit the damage caused by RFK Jr.’s unrelenting anti-vaccine agenda, we will have only ourselves to blame.